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Rising Markets, Popular Spring Break Destinations, And More! | Episode 24 | STR Data Lab™ by AirDNA

This week, Jamie and Mariah dive deep into the data while keeping things short and sweet. Despite February typically being the weakest month for demand, this past month has seen some interesting trends in the vacation rental industry. With a staggering 13 million nights stayed in February alone, demand was up YoY by 18%. However, occupancy was down YoY by 1.8%, indicating a significant increase in new listings — up 26% YoY. While some of this growth is due to the lengthy process of listing, it is primarily attributed to an influx of second homes that were purchased for remote work during COVID and are subsequently being listed to make a profit as workers return to in-person work environments. It's worth noting that there are currently 6 million second homes in the U.S., but only 1.5 million of them are listed on Airbnb and VRBO.

Switching gears to the economy, we've seen an incredible job listings growth of 311k in February alone. However, with discretionary spending being heavily dependent on job security, it's important to keep an eye on the deceleration of growth we're currently experiencing. Inflation has also decreased, with February's headline inflation sitting at 6% — down from previous months. We could potentially see a drop to 3% by the end of the year. As we gear up for spring break, it's interesting to note that nights booked have increased by 14.8% compared to January. The top markets for spring break include Orlando, Phoenix/Scottsdale, Gatlinburg, Panama City, and Miami. However, some rising stars for growth are the Jersey City/Newark areas, Chicago, The Hamptons, Boston, and Washington D.C.

Stay tuned for the new forecasting reporting from Jamie Lane.

~~~~

Read the Full Market Review:

https://www.airdna.co/blog/airdna-market-review-us-february-2023

Listen On:

Transcript

00:00:00:01 - 00:00:03:24

February was just about 13 million nights,

00:00:04:10 - 00:00:06:15

which if you had been keeping track,

00:00:06:24 - 00:00:09:24

this is the lowest level

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in the past year.

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Do you want to talk about

some of the crazy stuff

00:00:14:11 - 00:00:28:25

that happened?

00:00:30:08 - 00:00:32:01

The countdown has started.

00:00:32:01 - 00:00:35:25

Jamie Lane

We are going to challenge ourselves

00:00:35:25 - 00:00:39:04

to make this the most snackable

episode ever for people today.

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How does that sound?

00:00:42:00 - 00:00:45:22

The short term rental industry,

the economy, spring break

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and everything in between all the way

and then 30 minutes.

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Is that what you're talking about?

That's what I'm talking about, baby.

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Listen, people are busy.

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And also people have

spring break vacations to get to sleep.

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We got to make this easy for them.

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This is like

this needs to be like a commute distance.

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You know, I mean, like a nice little

package for you, our lovely audience.

00:01:05:14 - 00:01:07:03

Oh, it's been a minute

since we've been together,

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so I'm just happy

that we're recording the two of us.

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Yeah. So it's.

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It's. It's been a little while.

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We've had some some great guests

on the podcast recently.

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Just in conferences, recently talking

with clients, getting out and about.

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But, and it's been maybe a little bit

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of a wild couple months

in the industry and the economy. A

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But it's

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I think like we were talking about

acceleration, like it's just go, go, go.

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That's the theme.

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Yeah, thanks. It's it accelerated.

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Things have escalated.

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I don't know.

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Well, wasn't anything in the news

last week.

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I mean, like nothing interesting

to read about.

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The other thing I wanted to start doing

at the beginning of the episodes,

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I probably should have mentioned it

is is any juicing ourselves again

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and for our listeners.

00:02:02:26 - 00:02:06:17

So for those of you who don't know,

00:02:07:18 - 00:02:10:25

I am Jamie Laing, VP of Research at rDNA.

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Oh, I love this.

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And yes,

I mean audience, we don't prepare.

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This is just a very authentic podcast.

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I, I am Mariah Carey.

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I am Jamie Lane's faithful sidekick.

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But in addition to that, and mostly here

for the laughs, I am also the V.P.

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of marketing.

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I do have a serious day job.

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But this is this is my fun time.

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So, yeah,

I don't want to talk about the hot girl.

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But I do want to talk about

what's going on in the industry. So.

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Well, let's.

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Hey, we're on the clock.

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All right, So let's talk about it.

You mentioned it.

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You're like, what is what is it?

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What is demand looking like?

00:02:47:06 - 00:02:48:24

What does the future hold for us?

00:02:48:24 - 00:02:50:21

Jamie Lynn. Help.

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So for those of you

that have been following along,

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I am we talk about sort of night stayed.

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Yeah February

was just about 13 million nights

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which if you had been keeping track

this is the lowest level

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in the past year but not to worry

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the year is is typically the weakest month

for demand during the year.

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I don't know about you,

but it is a little chilly here

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today in Atlanta.

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Wind and we have seen some wild weather

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around the country

that has been sort of messing with

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demand patterns,

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record snow in certain parts of the

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the West.

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I've seen photos of

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just scary is getting dumped in and people

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getting sort of buried in their homes

right now.

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And obviously, in some ways

that's great for for skiers.

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In other ways, it's it's

terrible for people actually trying to get

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to those rentals

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to actually go on their trips there.

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You know,

some very weak snow out we out east.

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I'm impacting different areas there.

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Maybe some some cooler than expected

wet weather in certain

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beach markets.

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So I'm some ups and downs.

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But overall demand was was still up

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year over year, up 18% in February.

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So we're still sort of riding

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the wave of of highs off of all the supply

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that's come on to the industry

over the past year.

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We've also continued the almost year

long decline in in occupancy.

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So occupancy was for down further 1.8%.

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And in February,

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that is a theme that we expect to continue

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on new listings

by continuing to sort of surprise

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to the upside available listings, up

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26% year over year. Wow.

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Which was a bit of an acceleration

from anyway.

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And man, it kills me to see that am great

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that people are continued

to invest Yeah in the market

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that we see

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new listings continue to come online.

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When we look back to last year

00:05:29:27 - 00:05:32:17

March April, May was when we really saw

00:05:32:17 - 00:05:36:12

the surge that sort of led

to an all the supply growth

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that we reported throughout 2022

very soon.

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It's going to be really interesting

as we sort of head into those months of

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do we sort of meet those levels,

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do we exceed them,

Do we start to come down?

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My expectation

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has and I think, well, we'll

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continue to be that

it starts to come down,

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but every single month

I keep getting surprised to the upside.

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Yeah, in terms of supply growth,

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we're going to be releasing

some updated forecasts.

00:06:14:02 - 00:06:15:09

I'll probably

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talk about them on on the podcast

next month,

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but we'll be up upping our forecast

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for 2022 or 2023.

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For supply growth, we were at 9%,

I suspect were north of 12% for the year

00:06:33:12 - 00:06:36:01

when those updated numbers come out.

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So it's yeah, it's

00:06:39:03 - 00:06:41:25

and that that just makes it

that much harder

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when we look at

00:06:45:12 - 00:06:48:10

how much demand our industry can

00:06:48:10 - 00:06:50:18

absorb absorb. Yeah.

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And how big those occupancy declines

might be.

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So far the past few months

we've been averaging out around that 2%.

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Mark right of decline month over month.

00:07:02:25 - 00:07:03:17

Yeah.

00:07:03:17 - 00:07:05:10

And we're there in the summer.

00:07:05:10 - 00:07:07:14

We're down 10%.

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I don't expect that we get back to the

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I'm see further 10% declines

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this summer

but I'm definitely further declines

00:07:16:00 - 00:07:18:09

as we look out over the over

the next year.

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We love it.

00:07:19:09 - 00:07:20:17

Well that is thank you.

00:07:20:17 - 00:07:22:25

That was such a good succinct update.

00:07:23:23 - 00:07:26:01

Couple of couple of key takeaways

there for me.

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Like you said

00:07:28:13 - 00:07:28:22

in the

00:07:28:22 - 00:07:31:14

last 11 months, it's the lowest

it's ever been for demand.

00:07:31:27 - 00:07:35:13

That said, it's it's a short month,

only 28 days.

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And, you know, people

probably are kind of saving it,

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which we're going to talk about

in a minute for some spring travel.

00:07:42:13 - 00:07:46:02

But you also mentioned the 1.8%,

I think, down for occupancy.

00:07:46:02 - 00:07:50:01

And is that February

20, 22 versus February 20, 23?

00:07:50:01 - 00:07:51:25

You'll love it.

00:07:51:25 - 00:07:54:03

Well, Jamie, that was that's

00:07:54:03 - 00:07:57:11

a good update and I love that

we're reserving the right to reforecast.

00:07:57:11 - 00:07:59:05

We're like,

listen, we'll keep you updated.

00:07:59:05 - 00:08:00:11

Things are changing.

00:08:00:11 - 00:08:03:28

Do you think some of that supply

listing growth that maybe was a little bit

00:08:03:28 - 00:08:04:22

more unexpected?

00:08:04:22 - 00:08:06:06

I'm just thinking about how long it takes

00:08:06:06 - 00:08:08:06

for somebody to get their property online.

00:08:08:06 - 00:08:10:10

Like,

is it possible that that knock on effect

00:08:10:10 - 00:08:12:00

is just sort of delayed a few months

00:08:12:00 - 00:08:14:21

as people

that maybe purchased back in December

00:08:14:29 - 00:08:19:12

are now finally getting their properties

online and up and running?

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And there's some of that

00:08:22:02 - 00:08:24:01

I'm definitely.

00:08:24:01 - 00:08:28:24

But what I think

and the theory I'm working with now on on

00:08:28:24 - 00:08:33:26

why supply growth continues to sort of

move up is just

00:08:34:16 - 00:08:40:02

and if you remember back to 2021

or maybe early 2022,

00:08:40:26 - 00:08:43:28

there was just so many homes

00:08:43:28 - 00:08:48:08

being bought, homes

being bought right home.

00:08:48:23 - 00:08:52:24

And maybe you bought that second home

with the idea of

00:08:52:25 - 00:08:56:11

I definitely want to use it in 2021, 2022

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for working remote and now with things

00:09:00:10 - 00:09:04:04

I got it at maybe a two and a half,

3% interest rate.

00:09:04:04 - 00:09:04:17

Yeah.

00:09:04:17 - 00:09:07:20

Now things may be going back to normal

00:09:07:22 - 00:09:11:13

for an office environment.

00:09:11:13 - 00:09:13:04

Now considering like, hey,

00:09:13:04 - 00:09:16:28

I'm short term

rental revenues are still and very strong

00:09:17:05 - 00:09:21:12

and we I'm sort of

and that persistence at the peak

00:09:21:12 - 00:09:25:21

we're still staying

and 30 40% higher than 2019 levels

00:09:25:29 - 00:09:30:24

in terms of earning potential know

that there's real opportunity out there

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and people are maybe bringing those homes

00:09:34:16 - 00:09:39:13

that they bought in prior year

and now deciding to to list them,

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which I know

00:09:42:00 - 00:09:45:17

there there's 6,000,002nd homes out there

this year.

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And only 1.5 million.

00:09:49:11 - 00:09:52:18

I'm listed on Airbnb in verbal in the U.S.

00:09:53:02 - 00:09:57:22

So there's a huge state of supply

of available homes

00:09:57:22 - 00:10:02:21

that could be listed on

any given day is regardless

00:10:02:21 - 00:10:06:19

of what's happening in the investment

market of people sort of buying homes

00:10:06:25 - 00:10:12:00

specifically to list on on

in the short term rental industry.

00:10:12:16 - 00:10:13:02

All right.

00:10:13:02 - 00:10:14:17

I love it. Well,

that was a good breakdown.

00:10:14:17 - 00:10:18:15

And again, just for folks

that was a 34% persistence

00:10:18:15 - 00:10:23:12

at the peak, 34% in increase in revenue.

00:10:23:12 - 00:10:24:22

Was that what it was, Jamie?

00:10:24:22 - 00:10:25:11

Is it 30?

00:10:25:11 - 00:10:29:08

And we're I think 30, 40% higher 30.

00:10:29:16 - 00:10:32:25

So somewhere around there and revenue

00:10:32:25 - 00:10:35:28

today

on a per available listing then back in

00:10:36:29 - 00:10:39:01

2019 and

00:10:39:01 - 00:10:42:02

that and to show two

and I thought you were going to ask this

00:10:42:02 - 00:10:46:07

like with the occupancy declines

like we're still higher than 2019 levels.

00:10:46:07 - 00:10:49:05

So that sort of an indexing off the highs

00:10:50:06 - 00:10:54:09

we're still in and February is the lowest.

00:10:54:09 - 00:10:57:15

And so we're only two and a half percent

higher than 2019.

00:10:57:22 - 00:11:00:26

We didn't get that much higher in 2021,

2022.

00:11:01:06 - 00:11:05:25

And February is just not the month

where you're going to really accelerate

00:11:05:26 - 00:11:09:22

or produce a whole lot more people

to start traveling.

00:11:09:22 - 00:11:11:23

Just and given

the weather around the country.

00:11:11:25 - 00:11:13:11

Yeah. Yeah. No, that makes sense.

00:11:13:11 - 00:11:16:00

And a thank you for calling me out on

not asking that question.

00:11:16:05 - 00:11:18:01

Pop up.

00:11:18:01 - 00:11:20:02

Always the optimist that you are where I.

00:11:21:20 - 00:11:23:26

Know I think

but it's so important for folks right?

00:11:23:26 - 00:11:26:27

Like what's really to contextualize

what's declining versus

00:11:26:27 - 00:11:29:18

like just slow and steady growth

right now.

00:11:29:28 - 00:11:31:00

Okay, perfect.

00:11:31:00 - 00:11:34:25

Well,

you all you and I both again, just because

00:11:34:25 - 00:11:37:27

we also probably are dreaming of

the beach, want to talk a little bit about

00:11:38:27 - 00:11:41:24

the economy and like spring break

and all that stuff.

00:11:42:01 - 00:11:44:14

I think we

I think we agreed to the economy first.

00:11:44:14 - 00:11:45:17

Again, guys, we prepare.

00:11:45:17 - 00:11:47:14

I swear we prepare for this podcast.

00:11:47:14 - 00:11:51:21

Do you want to talk about

some of the crazy stuff that happened?

00:11:52:15 - 00:11:54:04

Yeah, last minute.

00:11:54:04 - 00:11:57:07

So I'll last week as we're

00:11:57:08 - 00:11:59:19

recording over the weekend,

00:12:00:12 - 00:12:03:28

but maybe I'll start with just

some of the headline economic figures.

00:12:04:23 - 00:12:07:01

Love it because

00:12:07:01 - 00:12:12:07

and that's where my head immediately

goes as I'm like

00:12:12:07 - 00:12:16:11

it are not in the consumer economy.

00:12:16:11 - 00:12:19:04

Discretionary spending that happens in

00:12:19:12 - 00:12:23:01

our industry is

00:12:23:01 - 00:12:26:02

really dependent

on people maintaining jobs

00:12:26:19 - 00:12:29:26

through further job

growth happening and people

00:12:29:26 - 00:12:34:23

having the wages and discretionary

income to spend on travel.

00:12:34:23 - 00:12:38:10

So and two metrics I'm still covering, I'm

00:12:38:20 - 00:12:41:08

monitoring most closely job growth.

00:12:41:21 - 00:12:46:06

Job growth has been amazing over the past

two months, right?

00:12:46:14 - 00:12:50:01

I'm 517,000 new jobs in January,

00:12:50:11 - 00:12:53:16

311,000 new jobs in February

00:12:55:10 - 00:12:59:11

almost, and maybe too strong.

00:12:59:19 - 00:13:02:08

And so

00:13:02:11 - 00:13:04:12

I'm up until last week

00:13:04:12 - 00:13:07:14

and expectations

and sort of the market was

00:13:07:25 - 00:13:12:15

and we are going to go from raising

the Fed, raising rates of 25 basis points

00:13:12:29 - 00:13:15:16

and sort of maybe re accelerating rate

00:13:15:16 - 00:13:21:06

growth up to 50 basis points

while given the sort of really strong

00:13:21:06 - 00:13:26:27

job numbers, still persistently

high inflation, we saw point

00:13:26:27 - 00:13:30:07

5% month over month in January and CPI

00:13:30:08 - 00:13:33:09

point 4% month over month in February.

00:13:33:26 - 00:13:37:20

And we're still seeing a deceleration

in your over your growth.

00:13:37:20 - 00:13:40:23

Overall, we were only at 6%

00:13:40:23 - 00:13:43:07

headline inflation in February,

00:13:43:07 - 00:13:46:28

which is down, down significantly

from what we were seeing over the summer.

00:13:46:29 - 00:13:47:24

Right.

00:13:48:24 - 00:13:50:16

It's still looking like we could

00:13:50:16 - 00:13:52:24

get to 3% by the end of the year.

00:13:53:15 - 00:13:56:17

So I think we're still sort of

but according

00:13:56:17 - 00:14:00:27

to script for what we want to see,

00:14:01:17 - 00:14:06:01

but we're sort of wavering

and that I'm it's not decelerating.

00:14:06:21 - 00:14:12:10

Decelerating maybe at the rate that we had

seen, but I'm in November, December

00:14:13:08 - 00:14:16:10

and worrying the Fed a bit

00:14:17:11 - 00:14:21:25

but then sort of

that was all maybe thrown out the window

00:14:21:25 - 00:14:25:10

a bit with the collapse of Silicon

Valley bank.

00:14:26:18 - 00:14:29:07

Now that what I was alluding to which.

00:14:29:11 - 00:14:31:14

Yeah but

00:14:32:25 - 00:14:34:29

over the over the weekend

00:14:34:29 - 00:14:37:12

the sort of Fed and Treasury

00:14:37:12 - 00:14:41:16

sort of stepping

in, the FDIC taking over those banks,

00:14:42:01 - 00:14:44:20

deciding to sort of backstop

00:14:45:08 - 00:14:48:16

those deposits, making sure

00:14:48:16 - 00:14:51:11

all those depositors were fully in share

00:14:51:11 - 00:14:53:24

insured and having access to their money.

00:14:54:25 - 00:14:58:14

Really, we hadn't seen a bank fail.

00:14:58:17 - 00:14:59:04

Yeah.

00:14:59:26 - 00:15:01:20

In in years.

00:15:01:20 - 00:15:06:15

And Silicon Valley Bank

was the second largest bank failure we had

00:15:06:17 - 00:15:10:15

we had ever seen,

second only to Washington

00:15:10:15 - 00:15:13:04

Mutual back in 2008. So

00:15:14:20 - 00:15:16:04

and economists

00:15:16:04 - 00:15:18:24

will debate debate and are debating

00:15:19:11 - 00:15:24:01

whether or not it was necessary to prevent

sort of further contagion

00:15:24:24 - 00:15:27:20

in the regional sort of bank markets.

00:15:27:20 - 00:15:30:09

I think it was a great move

personally by the Fed

00:15:30:27 - 00:15:33:13

and the Treasury

to come in and sort of stop

00:15:34:11 - 00:15:35:26

further

00:15:37:07 - 00:15:39:17

and what could have been a crisis

00:15:40:13 - 00:15:45:01

in the banking market sort of spreading

further into the overall economy.

00:15:45:25 - 00:15:50:22

And it would have been a really tough spot

00:15:50:22 - 00:15:54:10

for the Fed to be in

if we had a full on banking crisis.

00:15:54:10 - 00:15:57:21

All the while rightfully,

it's still sort of

00:15:58:12 - 00:16:01:01

well above where we want it to be

00:16:01:01 - 00:16:04:26

because and the Fed wouldn't

necessarily have their tool

00:16:04:26 - 00:16:08:20

of lowering interest rates

to prop up these banks

00:16:08:20 - 00:16:11:26

to promote

00:16:11:28 - 00:16:14:22

more economic activity,

given that they're sort of

00:16:14:22 - 00:16:17:25

tightening interest rates

and wanting to slow economic activity.

00:16:17:25 - 00:16:21:05

So in the right move, in my opinion,

00:16:21:24 - 00:16:24:26

and one will look back

and and be happy that they did.

00:16:25:12 - 00:16:26:25

A lot a lot of levers.

00:16:26:25 - 00:16:29:09

They're right

lots of lots of balancing acts.

00:16:29:09 - 00:16:29:28

But thank you.

00:16:29:28 - 00:16:33:21

I always love when you remind us

what those metrics are that we should be

00:16:33:21 - 00:16:37:14

paying attention to for demand

and everything else with the economy.

00:16:37:14 - 00:16:39:11

That was a great synopsis.

00:16:39:11 - 00:16:43:25

I should challenge you to do

these things more often quickly. But

00:16:44:28 - 00:16:46:09

I can and

00:16:46:09 - 00:16:49:17

I know

we're going to jump into spring break, but

00:16:49:21 - 00:16:54:00

maybe one of the overall industry metrics

that I didn't mention, that is,

00:16:54:17 - 00:16:59:06

and our listeners will know

is my favorite guys.

00:16:59:06 - 00:17:01:03

Everybody, this is a quiz.

00:17:01:03 - 00:17:02:24

Remember what Jamie's favorite is?

00:17:02:24 - 00:17:04:19

Me to retail.

00:17:04:23 - 00:17:06:12

Is nights booked.

00:17:06:12 - 00:17:11:01

So how many reservation nights

were made during the month of February?

00:17:11:28 - 00:17:13:21

Comparing back to last February?

00:17:13:21 - 00:17:16:01

So in our metric of

00:17:18:05 - 00:17:21:10

sort of booking activity

and that's for future dates

00:17:21:10 - 00:17:28:06

not stays happening in February

and during February that was up 14.8%.

00:17:28:06 - 00:17:32:15

So maybe a slight deceleration

from January,

00:17:33:06 - 00:17:35:25

but I'm very much

00:17:36:26 - 00:17:40:08

in the bull's eye of what

we want to be seeing to sort of

00:17:40:28 - 00:17:45:09

and keeping up with and the sort of strong

level of supply growth rate

00:17:45:28 - 00:17:51:00

still introducing some

some declines and in occupancy. But

00:17:52:00 - 00:17:54:00

and broadly a good number.

00:17:54:22 - 00:17:59:11

So number sort of teased us up for I'm a

00:18:01:14 - 00:18:03:22

a good spring break

00:18:03:22 - 00:18:06:25

as a lot of those

and most of those bookings being made

00:18:07:05 - 00:18:10:25

in February

are for March and April travel.

00:18:10:25 - 00:18:13:17

So people gearing up for spring break

00:18:14:10 - 00:18:19:12

And I'm broadly it's it's

it's looking like it's

00:18:19:12 - 00:18:23:19

going to be a healthy spring break season

for most markets around the country.

00:18:23:21 - 00:18:25:19

I love that. Well, I love that.

00:18:25:19 - 00:18:29:29

Where where is it healthiest, Jamilla and

where where where are the people going?

00:18:29:29 - 00:18:31:08

I need to know where not to go now.

00:18:31:08 - 00:18:33:23

Can I?

00:18:33:23 - 00:18:37:13

So if you want to avoid the crowds, huh?

00:18:38:29 - 00:18:42:15

I'm I don't think it's maybe

00:18:44:15 - 00:18:47:00

a surprise to say

00:18:47:00 - 00:18:49:18

don't go to Disney during spring break.

00:18:49:18 - 00:18:52:07

Weird year.

00:18:52:07 - 00:18:53:22

Right? Right.

00:18:53:22 - 00:18:58:20

There are a lot of people planning

on going to Orlando.

00:18:59:13 - 00:18:59:24

It is.

00:18:59:24 - 00:19:06:06

There are top spring break market

sort of the Orlando Kissimmee area number

00:19:06:06 - 00:19:10:08

two, Phenix, Scottsdale, a big market

00:19:10:08 - 00:19:14:06

for spring spring training base. Not

00:19:17:11 - 00:19:19:01

I I've talked about this before.

00:19:19:01 - 00:19:21:02

I have to get spend

a spring training next year.

00:19:21:02 - 00:19:24:27

My husband, who you've heard of here,

honey, I'll get you there next year,

00:19:24:27 - 00:19:28:01

I promise.

00:19:28:01 - 00:19:31:25

So that was actually one of our strongest

demand growth markets due

00:19:31:25 - 00:19:36:22

to demand in Phenix, up almost 40%

for spring break travel year over year.

00:19:36:23 - 00:19:37:26

Crazy

00:19:39:00 - 00:19:40:25

Gatlinburg

00:19:41:15 - 00:19:44:01

coming in at number three,

sort of Gatlinburg Pigeon

00:19:44:01 - 00:19:47:04

Forge market demand up 17% year over year

00:19:48:09 - 00:19:50:16

and then rounding out the top five

00:19:50:16 - 00:19:55:01

sort of are some of the most popular

beach markets, Panama City

00:19:55:18 - 00:19:58:26

and Miami down in Florida.

00:19:58:26 - 00:20:00:20

Further growth there.

00:20:00:20 - 00:20:06:03

Miami while straw and number

00:20:06:03 - 00:20:10:15

45 market for spring break demand

only up 3%.

00:20:10:15 - 00:20:14:15

Their market had seen a lot of new supply

coming in Ryan Young overseas

00:20:14:24 - 00:20:17:18

seeing some pretty significant year

over year

00:20:17:18 - 00:20:21:01

declines

in occupancy and revenue per listing.

00:20:21:01 - 00:20:24:24

So great to see that

they're sort of maintaining that demand

00:20:25:11 - 00:20:28:20

but maybe not as much growth

that they'd like to see

00:20:28:20 - 00:20:31:24

in demand given how much new supply

that's coming into that market.

00:20:32:02 - 00:20:34:05

Now, That makes a lot of sense.

00:20:34:05 - 00:20:34:15

All right.

00:20:34:15 - 00:20:35:28

Well, good. All places.

00:20:35:28 - 00:20:37:23

I will avoid for spring break. That's

00:20:39:07 - 00:20:39:28

done and done.

00:20:39:28 - 00:20:42:17

I need I need a nice like

00:20:42:17 - 00:20:43:21

off the beat.

00:20:43:21 - 00:20:44:26

No problem with the only one.

00:20:44:26 - 00:20:47:18

Especially if you're

looking for a new market to invest in

00:20:48:05 - 00:20:51:20

sake just up and coming,

you know, like a little rising star.

00:20:52:14 - 00:20:56:24

And I think we talked about enough

of those sort of rising stars

00:20:57:12 - 00:21:00:25

last market

why for for best places to invest.

00:21:00:28 - 00:21:03:28

That I promise

I wasn't trying to make you do best places

00:21:03:28 - 00:21:05:10

to invest plug.

00:21:07:01 - 00:21:10:07

Yeah I mean some of the maybe

00:21:11:07 - 00:21:13:14

rising star markets for growth

00:21:14:02 - 00:21:16:19

if if maybe that's what you're hinting to.

00:21:16:19 - 00:21:19:19

What I was see.

00:21:21:12 - 00:21:22:13

Many of them,

00:21:22:13 - 00:21:26:12

like Phenix,

are in some of the larger cities so Jersey

00:21:26:25 - 00:21:29:24

City, Newark area, their fastest

00:21:29:24 - 00:21:33:15

growing market for spring break.

00:21:33:15 - 00:21:36:18

Not a ton of people

going there for spring break, similar

00:21:36:18 - 00:21:39:23

to Minneapolis, which was number three.

00:21:40:13 - 00:21:43:07

Chicago coming in at number five.

00:21:43:07 - 00:21:45:21

So Hamptons, they're number four.

00:21:45:21 - 00:21:48:14

So some decent growth

00:21:48:29 - 00:21:52:21

in some of the larger cities

as urban travel comes back.

00:21:52:21 - 00:21:53:08

Yeah.

00:21:53:09 - 00:21:56:20

Are some of the cities

that it saw some of the strongest

00:21:58:06 - 00:22:00:12

ADR growth too so

00:22:00:12 - 00:22:03:10

Boston DC

00:22:04:28 - 00:22:08:04

seeing over 15% ADR growth for

00:22:09:25 - 00:22:10:14

spring break.

00:22:10:14 - 00:22:14:17

So finally, some of those big cities

getting pricing power back,

00:22:14:29 - 00:22:17:08

you know, to capitalize on on

00:22:17:26 - 00:22:21:14

both domestic and international travel

coming back to these cities.

00:22:21:22 - 00:22:22:17

100%.

00:22:22:17 - 00:22:26:18

Yeah,

those are some places I'd go to for sure.

00:22:26:18 - 00:22:29:27

Maybe not Chicago only because it's cold

until like June there.

00:22:29:27 - 00:22:32:01

But anyway, I digress.

00:22:32:19 - 00:22:33:13

All right.

00:22:33:28 - 00:22:34:12

Goodness.

00:22:34:12 - 00:22:36:28

We covered so much.

00:22:38:06 - 00:22:38:23

Did we?

00:22:38:23 - 00:22:40:13

What do we what did we miss?

00:22:40:13 - 00:22:43:02

I think we were

we overindexed on speed. It

00:22:45:14 - 00:22:49:04

I, I will say and I did

00:22:49:04 - 00:22:52:25

we talked a bit about

and my concern about supply.

00:22:52:25 - 00:22:53:06

Yeah.

00:22:53:10 - 00:22:55:27

How we've seen a a reacceleration

00:22:57:25 - 00:23:00:17

maybe give some caveat to that because

00:23:02:05 - 00:23:06:04

that's something that and is playing out

differently across the country.

00:23:06:05 - 00:23:08:05

Very very very good point.

00:23:08:23 - 00:23:13:26

We are seeing a D celebration

and further deceleration

00:23:13:26 - 00:23:17:22

in supply growth and a lot of the

coastal and mountain markets,

00:23:18:20 - 00:23:19:20

those are some of the areas

00:23:19:20 - 00:23:22:22

that have been hit hardest

in terms of the occupancy declines.

00:23:22:22 - 00:23:25:08

Right thing

00:23:25:08 - 00:23:27:12

and year over year declines

00:23:27:12 - 00:23:30:29

in revenue per available listing.

00:23:30:29 - 00:23:34:14

And those are ones

where we're clearly seeing

00:23:36:06 - 00:23:38:13

a deceleration and listing growth,

00:23:38:13 - 00:23:41:00

which I think is going to be

00:23:42:17 - 00:23:45:03

helpful for people

operating those markets.

00:23:45:03 - 00:23:49:22

Definitely that we're not seeing

further investment into it right now,

00:23:49:22 - 00:23:54:01

giving giving those markets

some time to absorb all the supply

00:23:54:01 - 00:23:57:18

that's come in.

00:23:57:18 - 00:24:02:23

We are seeing further acceleration though,

in some of the urban suburban,

00:24:02:23 - 00:24:07:26

some of the midsize and still in the small

city are rural areas around the country.

00:24:08:11 - 00:24:10:15

So that's where

00:24:10:15 - 00:24:13:03

if you're operating an urban,

00:24:13:03 - 00:24:15:25

it is broadly getting absorbed, though.

00:24:15:25 - 00:24:18:26

And this winter and winter is tough with

00:24:20:17 - 00:24:20:28

urban

00:24:20:28 - 00:24:23:23

areas because demand's not great, right?

00:24:24:06 - 00:24:27:15

As you said,

not really looking to go to Chicago.

00:24:28:14 - 00:24:30:16

Chicago, Chicago.

00:24:31:03 - 00:24:31:26

Yeah.

00:24:32:13 - 00:24:35:00

And many of those markets sort of are

00:24:35:10 - 00:24:40:14

propped up in the spring, summer of fall

as people are sort of

00:24:40:26 - 00:24:44:29

traveling to the cities, visiting friends

and relatives.

00:24:44:29 - 00:24:48:04

They do see the benefit of sort of longer

term travel.

00:24:48:18 - 00:24:50:26

So those days, 28 days are longer.

00:24:51:26 - 00:24:54:13

Really big benefit once we get into

00:24:55:12 - 00:24:57:16

sort of broadly

00:24:58:00 - 00:24:59:02

migration season.

00:24:59:02 - 00:25:02:02

Is that what you call it

when people start moving off?

00:25:03:00 - 00:25:05:00

You? Snowbirds like the people.

00:25:05:00 - 00:25:09:15

Know saying like, if I was going to move

to Denver, like, oh, typically

00:25:09:15 - 00:25:12:12

don't do it during the school year

doing winter, right?

00:25:12:18 - 00:25:15:03

Summer over the summer, Yeah.

00:25:15:03 - 00:25:20:14

So as people start to move, short term

rentals are being used more and more for

00:25:20:23 - 00:25:24:15

for temporary housing, things like that.

00:25:24:15 - 00:25:28:13

So that can be a big benefit

for the urban areas during during spring

00:25:28:13 - 00:25:30:27

summer periods. I love this.

This is great.

00:25:30:27 - 00:25:33:16

Well that was some excellent knowledge

you just dropped on us.

00:25:33:25 - 00:25:34:10

I think it's right.

00:25:34:10 - 00:25:35:03

I mean, like,

00:25:35:03 - 00:25:37:16

you know, I'm always struck

by the nuance of the business

00:25:37:16 - 00:25:39:28

and how much is kind of goes

back to your strategy, Right.

00:25:39:28 - 00:25:43:19

So like, yeah, great to see that

there's some relief in some of the more

00:25:44:08 - 00:25:47:19

popular destination areas

potentially as folks decide that

00:25:47:19 - 00:25:51:15

that might not be the best place

for them to start their business.

00:25:51:15 - 00:25:53:23

And then in those areas

where supply is growing,

00:25:53:23 - 00:25:55:20

I think it feels like

definitely an opportunity

00:25:55:20 - 00:25:57:23

if you are in that market

or even if you're thinking about going in

00:25:57:23 - 00:26:01:08

that market is to get in early

with a good competitive advantage.

00:26:01:08 - 00:26:04:26

As always, we've talked a lot and we'll

talk more about it, I think, soon,

00:26:05:13 - 00:26:08:00

how important the star ratings are

and just doubling down on that

00:26:08:00 - 00:26:10:29

guest experience, making sure that you're

standing out in the crowd.

00:26:11:29 - 00:26:13:06

And then I had a great

00:26:13:06 - 00:26:15:29

interview the other day with Kirby Atwell,

00:26:17:04 - 00:26:19:20

and he was talking about

I mean, his strategy is completely

00:26:19:20 - 00:26:20:27

different from so many, right?

00:26:20:27 - 00:26:23:22

He's just finding markets

where there's slow and steady demand.

00:26:24:01 - 00:26:27:04

And to your point, it's not just about

like, hey, I wanted to go to the beach.

00:26:27:04 - 00:26:30:24

It's like, you know, it's a college town

where people are visiting or is there just

00:26:30:25 - 00:26:35:01

a couple little draws or he's

getting people that are moving in the mix.

00:26:35:01 - 00:26:36:27

So just a reminder to folks,

00:26:36:27 - 00:26:40:05

there's a whole bunch of different ways

that you can do this that fits with what

00:26:40:05 - 00:26:45:00

sort of you are expecting to get out of it

in terms of strategy and approach.

00:26:46:02 - 00:26:48:02

And let's let's talk more about that

00:26:48:02 - 00:26:51:10

next time, Jamie, because again, the

the mandate for this episode was

00:26:52:16 - 00:26:55:23

short and snackable short and snackable

an alliteration.

00:26:55:23 - 00:26:58:01

You know how I like those.

00:26:59:08 - 00:27:01:18

Well, it's it's been a pleasure, Brian,

as always.

00:27:02:00 - 00:27:04:10

Yes. It's

so great to catch up with you, as always.

00:27:04:22 - 00:27:07:15

And I'm sure we'll see

you on the road again soon.

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