My Airbnb Bookings Are Down—What Now?

Key Takeaways

• Understanding the reasons behind a decline in Airbnb bookings, such as changes in guest demand or shorter guest lead times, can guide hosts in adjusting their strategies.
• Hosts can improve their situation by reassessing property basics, enhancing amenities and marketing, and adjusting rates with dynamic pricing tools.
• Utilize property-level insights and market data through AirDNA’s app to make informed decisions that will boost bookings.

The anecdotal evidence is all over social media: Many Airbnb hosts feel like their bookings are down. More specifically, some hosts are seeing fewer future stays roll in—meaning reservations made for a later date. Are your Airbnb bookings slowing down?

A drop in Airbnb bookings can happen for a variety of reasons, many of which are unrelated to how great your property is. Though you might feel anxious at the sight of a slightly empty calendar, there’s a lot you can do to determine why your bookings have slowed and turn that trend around. 

Why Are Airbnb Bookings Down?

If your Airbnb isn’t fully booked to your expectations, this could be for a few reasons. 

Across the US, Airbnb bookings have grown 8.9% over the last year (January 2023- January 2024). However, each market and property is unique. Some markets boom while others bust. And even individual properties can succeed in an otherwise volatile location. 

A great way to gauge how your property compares to the national trend is to look at the pace of on-the-books reservations. One explanation for a decline in booking pace could be that lead times have become shorter. 

Lead time refers to the gap between a reservation and a stay. Measuring lead time tells you how far in advance guests are booking. 

Fluctuating Lead Times

While data shows that lead times shrank in 2023, it doesn’t mean the sky is falling and that your vacation rental business is in dire straits. Lead times have fluctuated in recent years, both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Most recently, August 2023’s average lead time was 30 days and September 2023’s average was 29 days. This was a week shorter than August 2022 (37 days) and September 2022 (36 days).

AirDNA economist Bram Gallagher believes that shorter lead times in 2023 were related to the pandemic and the economy.

“We know that planning horizons shorten when there is more uncertainty,” he said. “2023’s uncertain and ambiguous economic situation—including the fear of a recession—caused travelers to avoid booking stays far in advance.”

Is Airbnb Losing Popularity?

In recent years, there has been speculation surrounding the popularity of Airbnb and whether the platform is experiencing a decline in bookings. Anecdotal evidence and media coverage may suggest fluctuations in Airbnb's performance. However, it's essential to dive deeper into the data to gain a clearer understanding of the platform's trajectory.

One factor to consider is the evolving landscape of the travel industry. Travel patterns and preferences have shifted significantly in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, with travelers prioritizing safety, flexibility, and unique experiences. 

Additionally, competition within the short-term rental (STR) market continues to intensify and alternative STR platforms are vying for market share. While Airbnb remains a dominant player in the industry, emerging competitors and regulatory challenges in certain markets may impact its growth trajectory. 

We know that the STR market is certainly not drying up. However, there are a couple of factors that have affected Airbnb owners and hosts in certain areas.

How Supply and Demand Affects Bookings

In the case of STRs, supply and demand express a direct relationship between how many hosts are offering accommodations, the types of properties available for booking, and who and how many guests need places to stay. That relationship affects metrics like booking, pacing, and occupancy rate.

For example, there was an influx of new vacation rentals listed on Airbnb—as well as other rental platforms such as Bookings.com and Vrbo—during the pandemic. In other words, supply increased. This has created greater competition among hosts, especially now that demand for short-term rentals is falling back to pre-pandemic levels.

If your Airbnb bookings are down, take a look at the number of rentals in your area and the level of guest demand and consider whether that number has changed recently. 

Regulatory Impact on Bookings

When a city introduces tighter restrictions on STR permits, existing Airbnbs may actually thrive. The increased market regulation provides protection for existing Airbnb owners who might otherwise have found themselves lowering their prices due to an oversupply of STRs. For these Airbnbs, business has never looked better!

New York City is just one example. In 2023, New York City implemented a policy that a short-term rental host must be present during their guest’s stay. Additionally, the rental may only host up to 2 guests. STR listings subsequently dropped by over 80%, from 22,434 in August 2023 to 3,227 by October 1 of that year. That’s a lot less competition for remaining hosts.

What to Expect in 2024

Good news: 2024 is predicted to fare better than 2023 for Airbnb hosts.

Airbnb demand is expected to grow by 10.7% in 2024 thanks to economic growth and domestic travel recovery. This is considerable growth compared to 2023’s 6.7% year-over-year (YOY) increase in demand.

Average daily rates (ADRs) are expected to grow by about 2.1%. Average daily rates refers to how much hosts typically charge guests per day.

Revenue per available room (RevPAR)—one of the most important metrics STR hosts should measure—is expected to increase by 1.9%. In short, RevPAR is your true revenue, calculated by dividing your annual revenue by your nights available.

Finally, occupancy—which measures how often a property is booked—is expected to remain at 54.7%, which is about the same as 2023. 

My Airbnb Bookings Are Down. Is It Just Me?

If your Airbnb bookings are down, don’t panic. Research upcoming events, how your neighbors are performing, and what the next six months in your area looks like to gain a deeper understanding of the situation. 

Pacing refers to the rate at which reservations are made for certain dates in the future. Future pacing data allows you to compare bookings across an entire market or competitive set (a list of properties with features and characteristics similar to yours). Using AirDNA market insights, you can research YOY changes in rates, how many homes in your market are booked versus available, and how many days in advance travelers are booking their stay (lead time).

Pro tip: Scroll to major travel holidays such as Thanksgiving, Labor Day, busy summer weekends, etc., and see how frequently bookings are being made and when. 

The market above, Panama City, shows that 3K bookings (66% of all bookings) for June 29th were reserved in the last 60 days. The remaining 1.7K bookings (37% of all bookings) for June 29th were made in the last month. 

You can also look at average booked and available rates for future dates to see how competitive your pricing is. If you aren’t sure how your rates compare to similar properties, compare them with our custom comps using our dynamic pricing tool.

What Can You Do to Improve Your Bookings?

It’s helpful to understand what’s impacting booking lead times and the balance between supply and demand. However, many short-term rental hosts are probably thinking, “That’s fine—what can I do if my Airbnb bookings are down?”

While you can’t change the lead time on bookings, you can make sure you’re well positioned to grab bookings as soon as guests are ready to make them.

Here’s how:

1. Address Airbnb Hosting 101s

First, take a moment to make sure you’re not missing any Airbnb hosting 101s. Our Airbnb 101’s cover pricing, setting up, and furnishing your rental, among other topics. Even if you’re a seasoned host, it pays to go back to the fundamentals when times are changing. Glance over this guide to see if there are any updates you can make.

2. Assess Your Amenities and Marketing

Once the fundamentals are in place, make sure your home stands out. Remember to think like a guest when furnishing your rental and keep your desired ambiance and price tier in mind.

Once your home is well decorated, get professional photos. Good vacation rental photography impacts your bookings because it’s a guest’s first impression and often a deciding factor when they’re choosing a place to stay. If you rely on poorly staged iPhone pictures, potential guests may choose another home until yours is one of the last available. Plus, you likely won’t get top dollar for your rental.

How Does My Airbnb Stack Up?

Airbnb features seven million properties around the world. Even if your competitors make up just a small fraction of that total, it takes a lot of time to manually research all of them. Are you missing some listings? Are there other amenities that would drive more Airbnb bookings?

Custom comps allow you to compare listings based on the amenities that matter most. Determine if you’re behind in bookings, missing key offerings, and pricing with intent—all based on accurate, actionable analytics. Understanding your competitors’ properties is just as important as understanding your own.

3. Assess Your Rates

Next, investigate your Airbnb pricing strategy. You might be excited about your prices, but are they truly optimized? 

If your pricing is not optimized, you’ll:

• Lose guests
• Miss out on potential revenue
• Be unable to effectively compete with other listings in your market.

Your top competitors are likely using a dynamic pricing tool, so don’t get left behind with an antiquated, data-blind business plan.

How Frequently Should I Adjust My Airbnb Prices?

Your market determines how frequently you should adjust your Airbnb prices, but that’s just the first variable. 

The perfect pricing often varies depending on general demand for your market, seasonality trends, and your competitors. Adjusting your pricing without any strategy in mind can be challenging. It may also be the reason why your Airbnb bookings are down.

Dynamic pricing is key to a fully optimized Airbnb calendar. If you aren’t sure when or how to adjust your rates, simply upload your listings in the My Listings tab. The My Listings tab unlocks Smart Rates, AirDNA’s dynamic pricing tool.

Estimating and gut-checking your pricing is a thing of the past. Smart Rates will optimize your prices based on real-time market data. Uploading your properties only takes 60 seconds, and customers report up to 24% more annual revenue when using Smart Rates.

4. Check Property-Level Insights

Finally, take a careful look at more nuanced property-level insights. 

These include metrics such as:

• Lead time: Do you tend to pick up last-minute reservations or get booked months in advance?
• Future occupancy: How many nights is your property booked over the next six months?
• Booked rate: Are your listings getting booked at higher or lower rates than those of your neighbors?

On AirDNA’s app, you can compile key metrics into a custom comparison (or just “comp”) set. This eliminates guesswork and arms you with a clear understanding of where you stand compared to other hosts with similar listings in your market.

FAQs About Getting Booked on Airbnb

Should I drop my rates to get more bookings or increase them to capitalize on nightly revenue?

Choosing your pricing strategy is a long game and should be based on competitor pricing, occupancy rates, and what travel patterns look like 6 to 12 months out. Smart Rates allows you to compare rate strategies and see your competitors’ rates each day.

Are my open days slow for everyone, or is it just me?

You may not be the only one whose Airbnb bookings are down. To determine if other STRs’ open days are slow, you’ll want to compare your pacing. Pacing refers to the rate at which reservations are made for certain dates in the future.

Pacing charts can quickly tell you whether the rest of the market and/or your direct competitors are booked on the same days in question. If Airbnb bookings are down for everyone, you’ll be one step ahead on how to change your rates to attract more guests.

What are my competitors making in a year?

Enter their address into Rentalizer, our free Airbnb calculator, and see for yourself.

Are other hosts dropping their rates for available dates? 

Are you keeping detailed records of your competitors and their nightly rates? If not, Future Trends will show you insights on future booked and available rates for your competitors when you connect your Airbnb listing to AirDNA. If they’re dropping their rates, you’ll be the first to know.