European Market Review: Demand and Occupancy Peak Easter Week, Shaping Up for a Strong Summer

Easter’s shift from April to March this year significantly boosted European demand. Year-over-year (YOY) demand growth, which averaged about 14% over the last six months, increased an impressive 32.7% in March; double-digit occupancy growth of 11.4% YOY rounded out March’s strong performance. Surging Easter demand bolstered host earnings for the month, with revenues increasing 47% YOY and revenue per available rental (RevPAR) increasing 23.4% YOY.

At a Glance: March STR Performance in Europe

• Available listings were up 21.2% YOY
• Demand increased 32.7% YOY
• Average daily rates (ADR) rose 10.8% YOY to 163 €
• Occupancy was up 11.4% YOY and up 3.1% compared to 2019
• RevPAR grew 23.4% YOY to 87 €
• Booked nights increased 18.5% YOY

Last month, bookings for future stays in Europe also reached a record high of 44.4 million, up 18.5% YOY. March is typically the peak month for bookings, with many travelers planning ahead for their summer vacation stays. The strong booking behavior we saw last month is a positive indicator of another record-breaking summer ahead. 

Demand Peaked for the Week of Easter 

A closer look at demand growth by week in Europe highlights the massive role that Easter’s shift played in demand across Europe last month. Europe saw 32.7% YOY demand growth for the entire month of March, yet, demand for the last week of March—Easter week—grew a whopping 55% while the first three weeks averaged only 20% YOY growth.

On a country level, YOY demand growth for March exceeded 30% in 11 of the top 20 European countries. 

Nordic countries led YOY demand growth last month, specifically:

• Norway (+64.1%)
• Denmark (+50.0%)
• Sweden (+44.5%)
  

Short-term rental (STR) demand for these three countries has increased significantly over the past year, and the Easter holidays led to a huge spike in STR stays. For the last week of March, Norway saw a whopping 104.9% YOY increase in demand nights while Sweden saw a 95.6% YOY increase. Demand growth also reached new heights in Denmark, as demand nights for the last week of March was 86.1% higher than last year.

The countries that saw the least YOY demand growth last month were:

• Ireland (+20.2%)
• Greece (+17.7%)
• Switzerland (+17.6%)
• Croatia (+3.9%)
  

All four countries have lagged in demand growth this past quarter and, while the week of Easter did offer an uptick in demand, it wasn’t on quite the same scale as the most in-demand countries. 

In Switzerland and Ireland, for example, YOY demand growth for the last week of March reached 40%; in Croatia and Greece, though, YOY demand growth for Easter week was only 24.5% and 6.8%, respectively. 

Supply and Demand Imbalances Pushed Occupancy Up 

While demand soared, last month’s growth in available listings in Europe last month was much more modest (21.2% YOY), resulting in occupancy soaring 11.4% YOY. 

Like demand, each week of March didn’t share in the increases equally. Occupancy for the first three weeks of March was only up 3.3% YOY, but occupancy for the last week of March was up 26.1% YOY. 

For more than half of the top 20 European countries, occupancy in the last week of March was more than 30% higher than occupancy during the first three weeks of March. Countries that saw the strongest occupancy in the last week of March were:

• The Netherlands (78%)
• Denmark (76%)
• Spain (73%)
• Czech Republic (72%)

Meanwhile, for Greece and Finland, Easter Week didn’t boost occupancy much. 

Among the top 50 European cities, occupancy averaged 72% the week of Easter compared to 61% during the first 3 weeks of March. Top occupancy performers saw occupancy exceed 80% during the week of Easter, including:

• Florence (86%)
• Amsterdam (85%)
• Lisbon (84%)
• Prague (84%)
• Porto (82%). 

In all five cities, STR regulations that limit listing growth and operations have resulted in high occupancy during peak demand periods such as Easter. 

In cities such as Belgrade, Dublin, and Warsaw, where March listing growth was stronger than demand growth, we saw weak occupancy for the week of Easter. 

Demand Will Be Down in April, but Summer Demand Is Pacing Strong

Since Easter shifted demand to March, we expect YOY demand growth in April to be minimal or negative. Current demand pacing for April is down 6.3% YOY for Europe. However, spring and summer pacing shows promise. Current demand on the books is up 27% YOY for May, and summer demand pacing (June through August) is already up 21% YOY. 

Are You Ready For It? Taylor Swift Is Coming to Europe This Summer

Summer is around the corner, as are two of the biggest events behind this year’s European STR demand: Taylor Swift and the Paris Olympics.

Taylor Swift will arrive in Europe in May, and current demand pacing is pointing to a summer of STR demand beyond our wildest dreams. The European leg of the Eras Tour is scheduled to begin in Paris on May 9 and conclude in London on August 20 for a grand total of 51 concerts in 18 cities. Total demand on the books for Eras Tour concert nights in Europe is currently up a stunning 47% compared to the week prior. 

Comparing total demand on the books versus the week prior sheds light on how much demand Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour is injecting into the market at each concert stop. However, it’s important to note that as concert dates get closer, demand premiums often decrease. As more nights around concert dates get booked, the difference between demand during the concert nights and demand the week prior decreases.

Currently, Eras Tour concert dates in May are seeing the smallest demand premiums, while concert dates in August are seeing the largest demand premiums. 

In Paris, Madrid, Lisbon, and Stockholm—where Taylor is performing in May—current demand premiums range from under 20% to nearly 90%. But for concert stops in August, current demand premiums exceed 200% in Vienna (+238%) and Warsaw (+346%).  

Perhaps more fascinating than the incremental demand increases Taylor Swift brings to European cities is comparing Eras Tour demand to demand during other major concert tours.

This summer, Coldplay is scheduled to perform in four of the same cities as Taylor Swift: Lyon, Munich, Vienna, and Dublin. While differing concert dates do affect demand pacing, in the battle between Taylor Swift’s “Red” and Coldplay’s “Yellow”, Taylor Swift seems to be the clear winner. 

Total demand on the books versus the week prior for Lyon, Munich, Vienna, and Dublin is up 83% for Coldplay concert dates. That’s impressive until you consider the whopping 138% bump for Taylor Swift concert days. The only city where Coldplay currently outpaces Taylor Swift is Dublin, where Coldplay is scheduled to play two months after Taylor Swift. 

Guests Are Snapping Up Cheaper Stays for the Paris Olympics

Another massive STR demand event this summer is the Paris Olympics, which could attract an estimated three million visitors to the Ile de France region in late July and early August. Many guests have already booked their STR stays.

Current demand on the books across Olympic event locations is up 79% versus the two weeks prior. The greatest demand uptick we’re seeing is in the Paris suburbs, where current demand on the books is up 154% versus the two weeks leading up to the Olympics. 

Guests who have already booked stays seem to be favoring lower-priced stays. Currently, 84% of nights booked for one and two-bedroom apartments in Paris are for less than 500 €. 14% of one and two-bedroom apartments are booked for 500 to 1000 €, and only 2% of nights booked are for more than 1000 € per night. Meanwhile, 60% of the nights still available are listed for under 500 € per night; another 28% are available for 500-999 €, and 12% of available nights are currently listed for more than 1000 € a night. 

Two-thirds of the nights available among one and two-bedroom apartments in Paris for the Olympics have yet to be booked, and the expectation is that supply will continue to grow as the Olympics approach. 

Guests still have plenty of options for cheaper stays and more stays will likely come online in the next few months. It will be interesting to see if higher-priced stays will get booked or if hosts will start lowering their rates. As of last month, STR listings totaled 88.8K in Paris (+43% YOY) and 82.5K in the Paris suburbs (+67% YOY).