AirDNA’s Future Pacing Trend Report

Dillon DuBois | May 8, 2020

So far, 2020 has dealt a considerable blow to the vacation rental industry. Cancellations, refund requests, barren reservation calendars — it’s a reality unlike any we’ve seen in the industry’s history.

Of course, short-term rentals haven’t been the only industry affected, but they serve as a reliable barometer to gauge the health of the overall travel economy. Thus far the report card for 2020 hasn’t been pretty.

This much we know.

What’s more difficult to predict — and vastly more important — is where we go from here. What does the future of travel look like? Which markets are likely to rebound the fastest? How can DMOs and tourism boards prepare for the recovery?

In response to these future-looking questions, AirDNA has now released Future Pacing Trends, a powerful new report that brings clarity to the outlook of tourism.

Read on to learn more about our new report and how it can provide insights for your market.

What is Pacing?

While pacing is by no means a new concept in hospitality, here’s a quick refresher for those who may be unfamiliar.

Pacing is the rate at which reservations are made for a particular date in the future.

By comparing this year’s trends to last year’s, pacing is a powerful forecasting tool that can be leveraged to gauge demand, revenue, and even upticks in the overall supply of vacation rentals. In the uncertain times caused by COVID-19, pacing allows DMOs, tourism boards, hedge fund managers, investors, and hoteliers to spot the exact moment at which the travel industry is making up ground and returning to normal.

A Sneak Peek into the Future Pacing Trend Report

Below is an example snapshot of a Future Pacing Trend Report. If you’re familiar with Smith Travel Research reports or AirDNA’s traditional Trend Reports, it’s a similar structure. The main difference here is that it’s forward-looking (click to enlarge).

So what exactly does the Future Pacing Trends Report measure? Here are the key metrics:

  • Supply: the total number of available nights based on the active listing count
  • Demand: the total number of booked nights
  • Occupancy Rate
  • Average Daily Rate
  • RevPAR (revenue per available rental): Calculated by ADR * Occupancy Rate
  • Revenue

For each of these metrics, users can analyze how they stand in the current year, how they stood in the previous year, as well as the difference between the two.

Important Things to Note:

  • Data in the “current year” row is not a projection for those weeks in the future.
  • Instead, the data provided is the actual, on-the-books information as it stands for the current week.
  • “Previous year” row denotes the metrics as they stood on this same date of the previous year. For example, if a report is delivered on June 1st, 2020, data for the “previous year” row will show all metrics as they stood on June 1st, 2019. 
  • New spreadsheets are delivered every week with updated data

Who Can Benefit from the Future Pacing Trend Report

If 2020 has made anything clear, it’s that each destination around the world has its own unique relationship with travel and tourism.

While COVID-19 has presented massive obstacles for some locations, others have curiously benefited from the situation. The truth is that, until now, it’s been tough to really put a finger on where we are and where we’re headed.

The Future Pacing Trend Report solves that.

Here are some of the biggest uses for our new forward-looking data product:

  • Measure and assess the pandemic recovery with short-term rental insights
  • Calculate the pick-up rate of short-term rentals with weekly updates on key performance indicators
  • Track the future supply of vacation rentals compared to last year
  • Conduct predictive economic impact reports to know exactly how STR-based tourism will impact local economies
  • Analyze potential future tax revenue compared to last year to help inform public policy
  • Because users can receive this report for their primary market plus up to 16 additional submarkets, it allows destinations to see how they’re stacking up against other similar areas — or analyze how specific territories within their main market are performing (and thus where to focus efforts).

If you have any questions about the new Future Pacing Trends Report, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the team at [email protected]. If you’re interested in learning more about other enterprise-level, custom data sets, discover them here.

Contact sales for more information on the
Future Pacing Trend Report

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