We dive into the data to learn how the NFL Super Bowl typically impacts vacation rental markets, including this year's host city of Phoenix, Arizona.

The NFL Super Bowl's Impact on Vacation Rental Markets—Past and Future | AirDNA

The NFL Super Bowl always attracts major attention in tourism circles, and for good reason. It’s one of America’s most high-profile travel events, and cities compete every year for hosting rights—and the economic stimulus that follows.

This year, Phoenix is hosting Super Bowl LVII on Sunday, Feb. 12. As a result, what can short-term rental (STR) operators expect the performance boost to be in this already high-growth market? To answer this question, we take a look at two past games as well as forward-pacing data.

Super Bowl LIV, held on February 2, 2020, was the last of the pre-pandemic bowl games. Held in Miami Gardens, performance gains in the STR market were noticeable not only in the average daily rates (ADRs) obtained, but also in the number of nights stayed. 

When comparing year-over-year growth rates, nights reserved grew at a pace of 34.2% year over year (YOY) on the week of the Super Bowl, compared to a rate of 13.8% the week prior. ADR enjoyed an even stronger effect, with growth increasing to 42.6% YOY on the week of the Super Bowl compared with just 9.1% the week prior. The gains in both metrics were widespread across the price tiers, but midscale saw the largest increase in demand while midscale and luxury saw the largest increases in ADR.

What about pandemic-era bowls? 2021’s Super Bowl was a singular game in the series history, affected by attendance limits, social distancing, and general fear of travel. On the other hand, 2022 saw something of a return to form with attendance of Super Bowl LVI, held in Inglewood, California, in excess of pre-pandemic levels. Los Angeles, already experiencing rapid demand growth in the STR market, did not see much of an effect on the number of nights reserved, with YOY growth holding at about 46% for the week of and before the game. ADR’s growth rate increased from 24.4% to 44.4%, and every price tier saw significant gains.

The upcoming game is similar to 2022 in Los Angeles in that Phoenix is undergoing rapid increases in its demand. Also, like in Los Angeles, forward booking shows that the effect of the Super Bowl falls less on nights demanded and more on ADR. When comparing bookings as of January 30, 2023, and 2022, reservation nights were up 46.4% YOY the week before and 40.1% the week of the Super Bowl, a small decline. There is, as apparent in the graph, a spike on the Sunday of the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, ADR pace shows strong upward movement, up from 12.1% the week before to 44.5% the week of. The drastic increase can be seen starting on Thursday the week of; however, earlier days in the week also have some pricing premium.

Breaking down the pacing numbers by tier, only budget properties have significantly higher YoY demand growth on the week of the Super Bowl compared to the week prior, at 18.1% growth versus 9.6%. Budget hotels also have the largest increase YoY in ADR in percentage terms, at nearly 88% higher for the week compared to the week prior. For the night of the game, this translates into approximately a $237 premium over the Sunday prior and a $321 premium over the corresponding Sunday in 2022! In fact, all tiers of properties are seeing large spikes in ADR growth for the week of the Super Bowl. On the other end of the tier spectrum, for instance, luxury properties on game day are currently pacing at a $747 premium versus the previous week and a $613 premium above the year prior.

One remaining question is last-minute bookings. Although pacing against the year previous looks promising in terms of demand, the surge in listings available in Phoenix/ Scottsdale over the last year may spell some difficulty for occupancy. Unless bookings between now and the game increase at even higher levels than in previous years, occupancy will still face a significant shortfall compared to February 2022. 

Booking data suggests that it may be that fans are waiting a little longer to book this year compared to last. Although the booking pace for the Super Bowl weekend is somewhat slower in Phoenix/ Scottsdale compared to LA for most of January, there is a noticeably larger bump in Phoenix/ Scottsdale for bookings on the Tuesday following the Conference Championships, when it is known which teams will compete in the Super Bowl.

To conclude, it appears as though Phoenix, one of the top growth markets in STR even prior to the Super Bowl, will see the effect of the game mainly in rates. Although some types and locations of properties may see a few marginal additional renters, the main benefit to hosts will be the ability to keep their properties occupied even while adding a hefty premium, reaching in excess of hundreds of dollars above what was being charged in the previous year or even the previous week, on average. 

The NFL Super Bowl always attracts considerable attention in tourism circles. This blog provides insights on what short-term rental (STR) operators can expect the performance boost of the Super Bowl to be in this already high growth market.

The NFL Super Bowl's Impact on Vacation Rental Markets—Past and Future | AirDNA

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