Holiday Bookings Rise as STR Demand Shifts Into 2026

In this episode, Jamie Lane is joined by Bram Gallagher, a recurring guest and colleague at AirDNA who specializes in economic analysis and market insights.

Together, they dive deep into November 2025's performance metrics, examining how calendar shifts, economic indicators, and upcoming events are shaping the short-term rental landscape. Their analysis provides crucial insights for property managers, investors, and anyone tracking STR market trends in 2025.

November 2025 Key Metrics and Performance Drivers

November 2025 presented a challenging month for the US short-term rental market. RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) declined 1.1% year-over-year, marking a continuation of the softening trend observed throughout 2025. While listing growth remained robust, the demand side told a different story.

The month's performance was significantly impacted by a calendar shift that often goes unnoticed in short-term rental market analysis. "We noticed that there was a Friday that went out of November this year and it got replaced by a Sunday," Bram Gallagher explains. This seemingly minor change had material effects on monthly performance. When adjusted for this calendar shift, demand growth would actually reach 2.7%—slightly above October 2025's performance.

Key metrics for November 2025 included:

• Demand growth: up 1.4% (2.7% calendar-adjusted)
• Occupancy: down 2.6%
• ADR (Average Daily Rate): up 1.6%
• Strong listing growth continuing to outpace demand

Demand, Occupancy, and ADR Trends

Demand and Occupancy Patterns

The weakening performance trend that began earlier in 2025 continued into November. "We started really strong with big demand gains in January, but that has slowly eroded over time," notes Gallagher. The summer months proved softer than expected, and November saw further deterioration in demand metrics.

All location types experienced occupancy declines between 2% and 4%, with midsize cities taking the largest hit at -4.2%. Even small city and rural markets, despite posting relatively strong demand growth of 4.6%, couldn't escape declining occupancy rates. This paradox stems from the continued surge in available listing nights—a trend that's persisted for several years.

Year-to-date occupancy for 2025 now matches 2024 levels exactly, meaning any occupancy growth for the full year depends entirely on December's holiday performance.

ADR and Repeat Rent Index

One bright spot emerged in November's data: rate growth. While 1.6% ADR growth might seem modest, it represents a significant turnaround from the summer's near-flat performance. September 2025 had seen ADRs decline by as much as 2.2% year-over-year, making the return to positive territory particularly welcome.

The repeat rent index showed even more encouraging signs, accelerating its growth rate for the second consecutive month. This momentum suggests that property managers are successfully pushing rates despite softer occupancy, a crucial factor for maintaining revenue in challenging market conditions.

Top Performing Markets and Regional Highlights

Bay Area and Major Events

The Bay Area dominated November 2025's performance rankings, with San Francisco, San Jose/Palo Alto, and Oakland claiming the top three spots for occupancy and RevPAR growth. San Francisco's 8% occupancy growth and over 20% RevPAR increase stood out as exceptional achievements in an otherwise challenging month.

Gallagher attributes this strong performance partly to the region's restrictive regulatory environment: "The existing stock is protected from ruinous competition to some extent." Additionally, anticipation for major upcoming events—the Super Bowl and World Cup 2026—is already driving bookings and market optimism in the Bay Area.

The contrast with hotel performance proves interesting. While STR (short-term rental) properties in San Francisco saw solid growth, hotels experienced even stronger gains, suggesting a broad recovery in Bay Area travel demand that benefits all accommodation types.

Economic Data and Labor Market Trends: Late 2025

Recent Economic Data Releases

After months without crucial economic indicators, the release of two months' worth of jobs reports and inflation data provided much-needed clarity—though questions remain. The data confirmed consensus expectations of a softening labor market while inflation stays stubbornly elevated.

November 2025's unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6%, compared to 4.0% at the beginning of the year. However, this increase coincided with rising labor force participation rates, suggesting more people entering the job market rather than widespread job losses. "The unemployment increase could signal just an increase in the number of people looking for [jobs]," Gallagher explains.

The inflation report, collected during a government shutdown, raised concerns about data quality. Federal Reserve officials advised caution in interpreting these numbers, adding another layer of uncertainty to economic forecasting for 2026.

Accommodation Sector Employment

The accommodation sector emerged as a notable outlier in 2025's employment landscape. While leisure and hospitality overall added 115,000 jobs, the accommodation subsector actually lost 21,000 positions. This divergence from other service industries—food service added 116,000 jobs, arts and entertainment gained 20,000—highlights specific challenges facing hotels and lodging businesses.

"Hotel performance has been a bit softer than short-term rental performance this year," notes Gallagher, suggesting this might explain some job losses. Long-standing labor shortages and hiring difficulties in the hotel industry compound these challenges.

The accommodation sector now joins professional business services, manufacturing, and government as industries experiencing net job losses in 2025—a concerning trend for hospitality professionals monitoring industry health.

Inflation and Broader Economic Context

Inflation remains elevated but stable, with food and energy prices helping anchor overall rates. The lack of dramatic movement in either direction leaves policymakers and market watchers in a holding pattern, awaiting clearer signals about 2026's economic trajectory.

"We need more data before making final pronouncements about interest rates and the economic outlook for 2026," Gallagher emphasizes. This uncertainty affects everything from investment decisions to pricing strategies in the short-term rental market.

The labor market appears frozen, with neither significant layoffs nor robust job switching. This stasis reflects broader uncertainty about how AI and new technologies might reshape workforce needs—a consideration particularly relevant for property management companies planning their 2026 strategies.

International and Domestic Travel Trends: 2025

Inbound International Travel

International travel to the US remains significantly depressed, with inbound demand for US short-term rentals down 16% year-over-year as of November 2025. Canadian travel shows even steeper declines at 37%, despite some improvement from earlier in the year.

High-profile stories about social media vetting and the current administration's stance on international travel may be contributing factors. "The lingering international travel deficit is concerning," Gallagher notes, though he sees potential for improvement as World Cup 2026 approaches.

The weakening dollar against the euro creates an interesting dynamic—making the US more affordable for international travelers while potentially diverting some Americans from European vacations to domestic destinations. This currency shift could provide a much-needed boost to US leisure markets struggling with reduced international visitors.

Domestic Travel and Holiday Demand

Calendar shifts for the 2025 holiday season created favorable conditions for extended trips. With both Christmas and New Year's Day falling on Thursdays, travelers could easily create long weekends with minimal time off work.

December 2025 pacing showed 4% growth year-over-year, but the real story lies in the dramatic surge for New Year's celebrations. "We're seeing an enormous increase in pace around [New Year's Day], around 38% as of the end of November," reports Gallagher. This shift pushes significant performance into January 2026, which is already pacing up 7.2%.

The holiday lift extends across all location types—not just suburban markets where family visits dominate, but also coastal resorts and mountain destinations. Jamie Lane's own experience illustrates this trend: his property's New Year's booking expanded from three days in 2024 to six days in 2025, demonstrating how travelers are maximizing the favorable calendar.

2026 Outlook: World Cup Impact and Forward Pacing

Spring and Summer 2026 Pacing

Looking ahead to 2026, spring performance appears strong, particularly in March and April. May shows slightly softer pacing, but June 2026 emerges as the standout month thanks to World Cup fever.

The impact of this global event on short-term rental market analysis cannot be overstated. "We're seeing explosive growth for the US in June," Gallagher reports, with nationwide demand pacing up 25% compared to the same booking window last year. This represents exceptional growth for summer months that typically see the longest booking lead times.

World Cup 2026 Booking Trends

Host cities are experiencing unprecedented booking surges, with June 2026 demand pacing up 158% following the recent match announcements. The distribution of this demand reveals interesting patterns that will shape market dynamics throughout the event.

Scotland's matches are driving surprising booking volumes, with three of the most-booked games featuring the Scottish team. Scotland vs. Brazil in Miami leads demand, followed by matches against Haiti and Morocco. While Mexico vs. Republic of South Africa remains the overall most-booked game, these Scottish fixtures demonstrate the event's broad international appeal.

Geographic disparities are already emerging. New York/New Jersey leads in total nights booked, leveraging its massive inventory. However, markets like Vancouver, Kansas City, Monterrey, and Boston show the strongest occupancy rates, suggesting tighter supply-demand dynamics that could drive significant rate premiums.

Market Implications and Rate Premiums

The World Cup's impact extends beyond host cities, potentially creating spillover benefits for non-host markets as soccer fans flood primary destinations. Property managers and investors must consider both opportunities and challenges as this unprecedented event approaches.

"I'm most excited to see what those rate premiums end up being," says Gallagher, highlighting the unknown factors at play. Affordability concerns, guest demographics, and compression effects all contribute to uncertainty around pricing strategies.

As occupancy levels rise in host cities, questions emerge about additional supply entering these markets and how that might affect rate potential. The interplay between short-term rental and hotel inventory will prove crucial in determining which property types capture the most value from this once-in-a-generation event.

For those conducting short-term rental market analysis, the World Cup represents both an exceptional opportunity and a complex challenge. Success will require careful monitoring of booking patterns, competitive dynamics, and rate optimization strategies as July 2026 approaches. As Lane notes, this topic will likely dominate industry discussions "on probably every podcast till July" as the market prepares for an event unlike any previously seen in the US.