There’s no telling how the war in Ukraine will progress or how further sanctions against Russia will impact gas prices and, in turn, travel and tourism. But we have dug into our databases to better understand which short-term rental markets are potentially most exposed to higher gas costs.

How Rising Gas Prices May Influence Airbnb Travel Trends

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has decimated multiple cities, displaced millions of Ukrainians, and triggered uncertainty around the globe surrounding trade, refugee support, and inflating oil prices.

There’s no telling how the war will progress or how further sanctions against Russia will impact gas prices and, in turn, travel and tourism. But we have dug into our Airbnb database to better understand which short-term rental (STR) markets are potentially most exposed to higher gas costs.

We analyzed 4.5 million Airbnb reviews from 2021 to identify the markets that attract the most long-distance travelers. (In other words, destinations that people drive or fly the farthest distance to reach.) We also excluded markets outside of the Lower 48 states so as to avoid skewing. And a clear pattern emerged among the destinations whose Airbnb guests drive or fly an average of 1,000-plus miles.

<div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1648853374164' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;Sh&#47;Short-TermRentalGuestOriginsandDistanceTraveled&#47;Dashboard1&#47;1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz'  style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='Short-TermRentalGuestOriginsandDistanceTraveled&#47;Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https:&#47;&#47;public.tableau.com&#47;static&#47;images&#47;Sh&#47;Short-TermRentalGuestOriginsandDistanceTraveled&#47;Dashboard1&#47;1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='language' value='en-US' /></object></div>                <script type='text/javascript'>                    var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1648853374164');                    var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0];                    if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 800 ) { vizElement.style.width='788px';vizElement.style.height='627px';} else if ( divElement.offsetWidth > 500 ) { vizElement.style.width='788px';vizElement.style.height='627px';} else { vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height='727px';}                     var scriptElement = document.createElement('script');                    scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js';                    vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement);                </script>

Several large destinations made the list:

Notably, mountain towns and national park destinations dominated the rest of the 1,000-mile club: 

We also surveyed markets that attract the most short-distance travelers, as these so-called drive markets may experience higher-than-average demand as long as the cost of gas remains high.

At a glance, these destinations seem more diverse. However, most are only a few hours away from large metropolitan centers:

Pocono Mountains, Pennsylvania (243 average miles)

The Delaware and Maryland coasts (284 miles)

Cambridge and Salisbury, Maryland (329 miles)

It’s worth remembering that not all Airbnb guests are paying the same for their accommodations–regardless of distance traveled. Even if two guests traveled the same distance to reach two different destinations, they’re unlikely to spend the same amount due to the relativity of supply, demand, and average daily rates (ADR).

For this reason, we also assessed which destinations recorded the highest ADRs and revenue per stay in 2021. Here’s the top 10, which include some overlap with our miles-traveled lists:

Telluride, Colorado ($2,516 per stay, $730 ADR)

Long Island, New York ($2,479 per stay, $724 ADR)

Aspen and Snowmass Village, Colorado ($2,139 per stay, $692 ADR)

Vail and Avon, Colorado ($2,052 per stay, $642 ADR)

Park City, Utah ($1,887 per stay, $545 ADR)

Cape Cod, Massachusetts ($1,853 per stay, $479 ADR)

Key West, Florida ($1,853 per stay, $467 ADR)

Jersey Shore, New Jersey ($1,852 per stay, $502 ADR)

Coachella Valley, California ($1,761 per stay, $528 ADR)

Jackson Hole, Wyoming ($1,734 per stay, $508 ADR)

The average cost of one gallon of gas is currently $4.25, which is a 48% increase from this time last year ($2.87 per gallon). For context, the average U.S. short-term rental guest travels about 740 miles to reach their destination, either by car, plane, train, etc. If we assume they are traveling by car–with typical gas mileage of 25 miles per gallon–that would boost the cost of gas during the trip by $81, from $170 to $251. With the average short-term rental stay costing guests about $928, this results in a 7.3% increase in the total cost of the trip–just from increased gas prices alone.

Crude oil is currently trending around $104 per barrel. That’s compared to $96 as of Feb. 28; $87 as of Jan. 28; and $62 as of March 28, 2021. Make no mistake: This is a steep upward trend that could negatively impact our expectations of short-term rental demand growth, as further detailed in our February 2022 U.S. Market Review. Again, everything goes back to the uncertainty of the war in Ukraine–its duration as well as potential declines in Russian oil exports.

To be clear: If oil remains below $125 per barrel, we should avoid any kind of dramatic impact on travel industry trends.

How far are people traveling?
Our short-term rental data shows many Airbnb guests taking trips anywhere from 200 miles to 1,200-plus miles, with an average distance of 740 miles.

Will people drive less with high gas prices?
Airbnb trends shouldn’t drastically change if oil remains below $125 per barrel.


Do gas prices affect travel?
Some destinations with shorter average travel distances may see heightened demand, just as some destinations with longer average travel distances could temporarily see a slight decrease in demand.


Will flights get more expensive?
The cost of flights will fluctuate relative to several factors, including the per-barrel cost of crude oil. This figure is currently at $104, which is $17 higher than this time in January 2022 and $42 higher than this time last year.


What are the current Airbnb travel trends?
Miami, Seattle, Portland, Oregon, and Key West, Florida, are among the top Lower 48 markets for those traveling long distances. Additionally, mountain towns in Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming remain popular in this category as well. Conversely, East Coast markets in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey are popular with guests traveling less than 400 miles.

See how the U.S. vacation rental industry is performing in our most recent Market Review

Find the best places to invest in vacation rentals in 2022

What does the post-pandemic short-term rental landscape look like?

Do rising gas prices affect Airbnb travel trends? We dug into our databases to better understand how short-term rental markets may feel the impact.

How Rising Gas Prices May Influence Airbnb Travel Trends

ARTICLE SUMMARY

Sign up for our newsletter

Solutions

Industries

Resources

Company

Contact Us

USA

Spain