Booking lead times (how far in advance guests make reservations) have shortened since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. But that doesn’t mean your rental business is in trouble.

Are Your Airbnb Bookings Down? This Might Be Why | AirDNA

The anecdotal evidence is all over social media: Many Airbnb hosts feel like their bookings are down. More specifically, some hosts are seeing fewer future stays roll in—meaning reservations made for a later date.

We call this gap—between a reservation and a stay—lead time. This metric lets us know how far in advance guests are booking travel.

We know, on a macro level, that demand, supply, and RevPAR (revenue per available rental) are currently up year over year. At the same time, every market and property are unique. Some markets boom while others bust. And even individual properties can succeed in an otherwise volatile location.

So the real question is: Does the data show that lead times have shrunk in 2023?

The short answer: Yes. The long answer: It doesn’t mean the sky is falling and that your rental business is in dire straits.

So let’s discuss why lead times have changed and what you can do to shore up your bookings in the coming months.

Why have Airbnb booking lead times changed?

Let’s start by establishing some frames of reference. To help us understand just how much lead times have changed since before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

From July 2017 to February 2020, the average booking lead time across Airbnb and Vrbo was 39.6 days. With a highmark of 57 days in June 2018.

From March 2020 February 2023, the average lead time was 30 days. With a lowmark of 12 days in May 2020 (around the onset of the pandemic).

More recently, January 2023’s average was 23 days. And February 2023’s average was 24 days. But that stacks up closely to February 2022 (27 days) and February 2021 (21 days). You have to go back to February 2020 (31 days) to find a higher average.

AirDNA Economist Bram Gallagher said while he can’t definitively comment on why lead times have changed at this time, he is considering a handful of explanations related to the pandemic and the economy.

“We know that planning horizons shorten when there is more uncertainty,” he said. “At the beginning of the recovery, there was a lot of uncertainty about infection. Since then, we seem to find ourselves in an increasingly uncertain or ambiguous economic situation.

“Moreover, leisure travel has a shorter lead time, and that kind of travel is still more predominant than prior to the pandemic,” Gallagher continued. “Lastly, people may have just learned to be more spontaneous or even opportunistic with travel planning.”

What can you do to improve your bookings?

Understanding what’s impacting booking lead times is helpful, but many hosts are probably thinking, “That’s fine—what can I do about it?”

While you may not be able to make guests look for and book stays earlier, you can make sure you’re well positioned to grab those bookings as soon as they’re ready to make them.

First, take a moment to make sure you’re not missing any Airbnb hosting 101s. Because you already own property, we recommend starting with section two, “How to price your Airbnb.” Even if you’re a seasoned host, it pays to go back to the fundamentals when times are changing. So glance over this guide to see if there’s any updates you can make.

Once the fundamentals are in place, make sure your home stands out. Having the right furniture will make your listing appealing to prospective guests. Remember to think like a guest when furnishing your rental and keep your vibe and price tier in mind to easily attract your ideal guests.

Once your home is perfectly decorated, be sure to get professional photos. Good vacation rental photography 100% impacts your bookings. Relying on iPhone pictures is a surefire way to guarantee potential guests choose another home until yours is one of the last available. (Plus, you likely won’t get top dollar.)

Speaking of top dollar, just because people are waiting longer to book doesn’t necessarily mean you need to lower your prices. While bookings may feel slower, nightly rates and overall revenue are still growing YOY. For 2023, AirDNA forecasts that average daily rates (ADRs) will grow 1.7%. This is slower than the previous couple years, though, so you’ll need to manage your listing more proactively to make sure you get your piece of the pie. Here are six tips on how to boost your average rates in 2023.

So don’t let the #Airbnbust rumors or shorter booking lead times scare you. Things may look a little different than they have in past years, but people are still traveling and staying in short-term rentals. You just need to make sure your listing is perfectly poised to capture that demand. But if you’re still nervous, you could always check out AirDNA’s Pacing tools to see what’s happening in your market right now. (Here’s how the pacing charts work!)

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Are Your Airbnb Bookings Down? This Might Be Why | AirDNA

An accurate data tool that can pay for itself with a single booking

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