Airbnb bookings down? Find out how the vacation rentals market is tracking in 2023, factors that are affecting Airbnb owners and hosts, and tips for success.

Are Your Airbnb Bookings Down? This Might Be Why

The anecdotal evidence is all over social media: Many Airbnb hosts feel like their bookings are down. More specifically, some hosts are seeing fewer future stays roll in—meaning reservations made for a later date.

We call this gap—between a reservation and a stay—lead time. This metric lets us know how far in advance guests are booking travel.

We know, on a macro level, that demand for vacation rentals as of September 2023 was up year over year. Globally, AirDNA data shows that bookings for the twelve-month period ending September 2023 rose from 717 million nights the previous year to 847 million nights, a year-over-year increase of 18.1%.

While bookings in general are up, every market and property are unique. Some markets boom while others bust. And even individual properties can succeed in an otherwise volatile location. One of the best ways to gauge how your property compares to the national trend is to look at the pace of on-the-books reservations. This pace provides more information to the host the longer the lead times generally are. One explanation for slackened booking pace could be that lead times have become shorter.

So the real question is: Does the data show that lead times have shrunk in 2023?

The short answer: Yes. The long answer: It doesn’t mean the sky is falling and that your vacation rental business is in dire straits.

So let’s discuss why lead times have changed and what you can do to shore up your bookings in the coming months.

Why have Airbnb booking lead times changed?

Let’s start by establishing some frames of reference to help us understand just how much lead times have changed since before and after the COVID-19 pandemic:

From July 2017 to February 2020, the average booking lead time across Airbnb and Vrbo was 39.6 days with a highmark of 57 days in June 2018.

From March 2020 to February 2023, the average lead time was 30.0 days with a lowmark of 12 days in May 2020 (around the onset of the pandemic).

More recently, August 2023’s average was 30 days and September 2023’s average was 29 days. This was a week shorter than August 2022 (37 days) and September 2022 (36 days). 

AirDNA economist Bram Gallagher said while he can’t definitively comment on why lead times have changed at this time, he is considering a handful of explanations related to the pandemic and the economy.

“We know that planning horizons shorten when there is more uncertainty,” he said. “At the beginning of the recovery, there was a lot of uncertainty about infection. Since then, we seem to find ourselves in an increasingly uncertain or ambiguous economic situation.”

“Moreover, leisure travel has a shorter lead time, and that kind of travel is still more predominant than prior to the pandemic,” Gallagher continued. “Lastly, people may have just learned to be more spontaneous or even opportunistic with travel planning.”

We know that the short-term rental market is certainly not drying up. However, there are a couple of factors that have affected Airbnb owners and hosts in certain areas:

There was an influx of new vacation rentals listed with Airbnb Inc. as well as other rental platforms such as Bookings.com and Vrbo during the pandemic. This created greater competition among hosts—especially when demand for short-term rentals started to fall back toward pre-pandemic levels.

Some cities, including La Quinta near Palm Springs in Southern California, introduced tighter restrictions on new STR permits. The greater market regulation seen here and in other places provides protection for existing Airbnb owners who might otherwise have found themselves having to lower their prices due to an oversupply of STRs. For some Airbnbs in these areas, business has never looked better.

What can you do to improve your bookings?

Understanding what’s impacting booking lead times and the balance between supply and demand is helpful, but many short-term rental hosts are probably thinking, “That’s fine—what can I do about it?”

While you may not be able to make guests look for and book stays earlier, you can make sure you’re well positioned to grab bookings as soon as guests are ready to make them.

First, take a moment to make sure you’re not missing any Airbnb hosting 101s. Because you already own property, we recommend starting with section two, “How to price your Airbnb.” Even if you’re a seasoned host, it pays to go back to the fundamentals when times are changing. So glance over this guide to see if there’s any updates you can make.

Once the fundamentals are in place, make sure your home stands out. Having the right furniture will make your listing appealing to prospective guests. Remember to think like a guest when furnishing your rental and keep your vibe and price tier in mind to easily attract your ideal guests.

Once your home is perfectly decorated, be sure to get professional photos. Good vacation rental photography 100% impacts your bookings. Relying on iPhone pictures is a surefire way to guarantee potential guests choose another home until yours is one of the last available. (Plus, you likely won’t get top dollar.)

Speaking of top dollar, just because people are waiting longer to book doesn’t necessarily mean you need to advertise lower prices. While bookings may feel slower, nightly rates and overall revenue are still growing YOY. For 2023, AirDNA forecasts that same-property average daily rates (ADRs) will grow 0.6% on average. This is slower than the previous couple years, though, so you’ll need to manage your listing more proactively to make sure you get your piece of the pie. Here are six tips on how to boost your average rates in 2023.

Short-term rentals, overall, are doing well

Don’t let the #Airbnbust rumors or shorter booking lead times scare you. Things may look a little different than they have in past years, but people are still traveling and staying in short-term rentals. You just need to make sure your listing is perfectly poised to capture that demand. But if you’re still nervous, you could always check out AirDNA’s pacing tools to see what’s happening in your market right now. (Here’s how the pacing charts work!)

Are Your Airbnb Bookings Down? This Might Be Why

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