U.S. Review October 2026: Tight Supply Lifts Occupancy and RevPAR

Key Takeaways

• Available listings grew just 1.2% in October, tying September for the slowest growth since the pandemic, as high mortgage rates keep would-be hosts out of the market.
• Demand grew 3.5% on that thin supply base, so occupancy rose 1.1 percentage points to 55.4%, within a tenth of a point of October 2023.
• RevPAR rose 5.2%, and existing hosts raised like-for-like prices 7.1% (Repeat Rent Index), even as the guest mix shifted toward cheaper stays.

October is the first clean month since the Labor Day calendar shift scrambled August and September, and it confirms what the two-month view suggested: demand is growing faster than supply, and that gap is turning into better unit-level performance. With new supply held back by the housing market, travelers are filling the listings that already exist, and hosts are pricing accordingly.

At a Glance: Key U.S. STR Performance Metrics for October 2026

• Revenue per available rental night (RevPAR) increased 5.2% year over year (YoY) to $132
• Available listings reached 1.72 million, a 1.2% increase YoY
• Demand nights increased 3.5% YoY
• Occupancy averaged 55.4%, up 1.1 percentage points YoY
• Average daily rate (ADR) climbed to $239, up 3.1% YoY
• The Repeat Rent Index (RRI) rose 7.1% YoY
• Total nights booked were up 5.1% from 2025

Economic Summary

The U.S. economy added a robust 165,000 jobs to the economy in October, well above consensus predictions and enough to lower the unemployment rate slightly, to 4.1% from 4.2% in September. Inflation in October still ran hot, at 0.4% month-to-month against a consensus prediction of 0.3%. While the Federal Reserve most recently declined to adjust the Federal Funds Rate, a strong labor market and inflation above the 2% target will likely force the Fed’s hand in December, making a rate hike all but a done deal.

Or, at least it would be, except that there are some large question marks hanging over the economic situation. The 2026 mid-term elections landing squarely in the Democrats’ favor led to dramatic day-to-day swings in the stock market as doubts grow around the progression of the AI data center build-out. High-wealth households have disproportionately contributed to consumption expenditure, including to travel expenditure, over the past few years. A correction in equities prices could have significant wealth effects if these high-wealth households decide to cut back on their spending as a reaction to their falling net worth.

Just as important are hopes for an end to the war on Iran, as the election is seen by many as a referendum on the conflict and its effects on energy prices. Oil prices have been sharply down since the results, potentially softening future inflation even in the absence of aggressive rate hikes. Productivity also increased in Q3 at +3.6%, up from +2.1% in Q2, while the unit-level cost of labor declined slightly, at -0.7%. Some AI benefits may be mixed in there, but also the U.S. economy is adapting to an economy not adding new labor at the same pace as in previous decades. Productivity gains by themselves are already disinflationary, and labor costs declining also removes wages as a source of inflation in the near term.

Supply Growth Holds at a Series Low as the Housing Market Stalls Investment

Available listings grew 1.2% in October, the weakest rate in our monthly series since June 2021. Growth peaked at 24.9% in February 2023, ran between 2.4% and 3.5% from late 2025 through July 2026, then dropped to 1.4% in August and 1.2% in September and October.

The most likely explanation of the slowdown is the frozen U.S. housing market. Mortgage rates rose through September, reaching 7.28% for the week ending October 1, according to Freddie Mac, and October new pending home sales fell 17% from a tepid 2025, according to Zillow. Meanwhile, home prices rose 0.7% YoY, so no price crash has yet occurred. Buying a second home to rent out is harder to justify when financing costs are this high and prices are not falling. We have previously reported a lag of roughly six months between mortgage rate moves and changes in supply, so the recent run-up suggests listing growth will stay subdued into the spring.

The slowdown is sharpest where property is most expensive. Urban listings fell 1.6% YoY in October, and coastal resort listings fell 0.4%. Mountain/lake resorts were flat. Small city/rural listings, by contrast, still grew 5.7%, and mid-size cities grew 2.5%.

Supply Is Becoming a Bottleneck for Demand

Small city/rural markets added 1.3 percentage points of October’s 3.5% U.S. demand growth, more than any other location type and more than a third of the total. Suburban markets added 0.7 points and mid-size cities 0.6 points; urban markets, despite their size, added just 0.2 points and coastal resorts 0.1 points. Before September 2025, small city/rural markets contributed a small share of total demand growth; since then, this affordable location type has been the dominant contributor.

That pattern lines up closely with where listings can still grow. Small city/rural demand rose 8.4% on 5.7% more listings, and mid-size city demand rose 4.8% on 2.5% more listings. Where supply is shrinking, demand growth is thin. Urban demand rose 1.1% as listings fell 1.6%, and coastal resort demand rose 0.4% as listings fell 0.4%.

Occupancy rose in every location type, so travelers are not simply abandoning cities and beaches. Rather, in the places where supply is frozen, demand can only grow as fast as existing listings can absorb it. The incremental traveler increasingly ends up where new listings are still being added, which today mostly means smaller and less expensive locations.

Demand Grew in Most of the 50 Largest Markets

Demand rose YoY in 29 of the 50 largest U.S. markets in October. Florida’s Gulf Coast led: Sarasota (+28.5%), St. Petersburg (+24.1%) and Cape Coral/Fort Myers (+19.4%) were three of the top four, with Big Bear, California (+22.0%) in third.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has so far been a welcome break for operators in the Gulf markets, and recovery from hurricanes Helene and Milton gave those markets a relatively weak 2025 comparison. Big Bear benefits from being a short drive from Los Angeles as the energy crisis has led travelers to economize on flights. Hawaii, on the other hand, relies on flights, and that, combined with lower international visitation, is creating headwinds for demand on Oahu and the Big Island.

Occupancy Is Resurgent, Approaching 2023 Levels

October occupancy averaged 55.4%, up from 54.3% a year earlier and just 0.1 points shy of October 2023 (55.5%), a high benchmark set while post-pandemic travel demand was still running hot. It is well above October 2019 (51.4%).

The gains reflect a post-COVID trend of stronger shoulder season travel. Every 2026 shoulder month so far has topped its 2019 level: April (54.7% vs. 53.7%), May (57.1% vs. 56.6%), September (53.5% vs. 50.1%) and October. That was not true a year ago, when September 2025 (49.8%) fell below 2019. Peak summer months, by contrast, are only matching 2019, with July at 67.7% against 67.5%.

With listings barely growing and budgets pinched by inflation, demand may be relocating to cheaper and less-occupied off-peak months, when there is vacant capacity to fill.

Existing Hosts Gain Pricing Power as the Mix Shifts Toward Affordability

Fuller calendars seem to be turning into aggregate pricing power. AirDNA’s Repeat Rent Index (RRI), which tracks price changes on the same listings and so strips out shifts in mix, rose 7.1% YoY in October. ADR rose only 3.1%, leaving a 4-point gap, the widest of the year. RRI has grown faster than ADR in eight of the ten months of 2026.

When like-for-like prices outpace the average rate, the mix of stays is moving toward cheaper listings. The location data points to why. Demand is growing fastest in small city/rural (+8.4%), mid-size city (+4.8%) and suburban (+4.1%) markets, which also had the slowest ADR growth in October (+2.3% to +2.7%). Those are the places where supply can still grow, and they tend to be less expensive to stay in.

So the affordability shift may be as much about supply as about budgets. Travelers are not necessarily trading down within markets. Instead, the growth in available stays is simply concentrated in lower-priced places. Meanwhile, hosts in supply-constrained markets are raising prices: RRI rose 9.2% in mountain/lake resorts and 7.7% in urban markets.

Occupancy Is Rising in Most Top Markets, With No Clear Link to Rates

Occupancy rose YoY in 35 of the 50 largest markets in October, some of them substantially. Big Bear led (+11.6%), followed by Long Island (+10.1%), Austin (+8.9%), Chicago (+7.9%), Charleston (+7.6%) and Sarasota (+7.4%). The steepest declines were in Coachella Valley (-9.6%) and Breckenridge (-9.2%).

Across the 50 top markets, there is no meaningful relationship between occupancy growth and ADR growth (correlation of -0.14). Looking at RRI instead doesn’t help either. Markets landed in every combination: Chicago and Sarasota raised both occupancy and ADR by 7% to 11%; Long Island filled more nights while ADR fell 15.6%; Coachella Valley lost occupancy while ADR jumped 16.7%; Breckenridge lost both.

One reason is that supply is the driver of occupancy, and while aggregate supply is supportive of higher ADR, each market has idiosyncratic reasons for supply changes, from disaster recovery to regulation to the special case of Coachella Valley. The valley had the lowest occupancy change but one of the largest demand increases. A raft of new festivals and events in Coachella Valley this October, led by the Head Trip electronic music festival, convinced operators to open 28.0% more available nights, even as available listings grew only 0.8%.

RevPAR Growth Is Strengthening as Supply Constraints Help Unit Performance

RevPAR rose 5.2% YoY in October to $132, up from 0.7% growth in October 2025. Growth has accelerated through 2026: 1% to 2% in the first quarter, 3% to 4% in the second, and 7.3% in July before the Labor Day shift distorted August (-0.3%) and September (+15.1%).

The turnaround follows the supply slowdown. In the second half of 2025, when listings were growing around 3% and demand only 1% to 3%, RevPAR fell in three of five months. With supply growth now near 1%, demand gains increase occupancy, and occupancy plus firmer prices go straight into revenue per listing. For existing hosts, that is the upside of a frozen housing market: less new competition and more revenue per unit.

Pacing: Forward Bookings Ahead Every Month, Led by Cities

As of November 8, U.S. nights on the books are ahead of last year at this time for every month from November through April. January (+9.7%) and March (+10.1%) lead; December (+2.0%) and April (+2.4%) are the softest. November, now partly realized, is pacing +4.4%.

As we noted last month, lead times have been lengthening since March, which tends to overstate pacing until about 60 to 90 days before the stay date. The near months are the most reliable signals; January and March are likely to come in lower than they look today.

Holiday pacing: New Year’s leads, Christmas lags

Holidays are busy travel days, but not always great STR booking days, as many people stay with friends and family. Thanksgiving (Wednesday to Saturday) is pacing 5.3% ahead, slightly behind the surrounding weeks (+6.3%). Christmas is just 0.3% ahead, against 5.6% for nearby weeks, with the nights of December 22 and 23 trailing last year by 15.2% and 7.8%.

On the other hand, New Year’s is at +15.1%, helped by January 1 falling on a Friday; on a weekday-aligned basis, January 1 itself is pacing +26.0%.

Over December 22 to January 4, urban (+10.9%), suburban (+8.3%) and small city/rural (+8.0%) markets are pacing well ahead, while coastal (-0.9%) and mountain/lake resorts (-2.1%) are behind. Among markets, Houston (+25.0%), Jersey City/Newark (+24.6%) and Dallas (+22.9%) lead the winter holiday window, a notably big-city list for the holidays.

Ski Markets Still Trail After Last Winter’s Snow Drought

Across 16 major U.S. ski markets, nights on the books for December through March are 6.0% behind last year at this time, while the U.S. overall is 5.3% ahead. The shortfall is concentrated early in the season: December is pacing -16.4% and the holiday week (December 23 to January 2) -13.2%, while January (-1.9%) and February (+2.3%) are close to last year.

Last winter’s historic snow drought across the West ended many seasons early, and it appears to have broken the habit that usually gives ski markets a head start. Skiers who enjoy a trip often rebook for the following year months in advance; after a poor season, far fewer did. Ski markets have booked 41% of last winter’s final nights so far, against 44% at this point a year ago, and last winter’s total was itself 4.8% below the winter before.

The gap is widest at the large Western destination resorts, where repeat visitors make up much of the early booking base. Park City (-21.8%), Jackson Hole (-18.6%) and Vail/Avon (-17.9%) trail the most. Park City has booked 43% of last winter’s total so far, down from 55% at this point a year ago, and Vail/Avon 48%, down from 59%. Smaller and drive-to markets are holding up better: Telluride (+14.8%), Mammoth Lakes (+12.4%) and Taos (+11.6%) lead, and 6 of the 16 markets are ahead of last year. Operators are partly offsetting the volume: ADR on the books is up 8.6%, leaving booked revenue 2.0% above last year. As always, the snow itself will decide how much of the gap closes.

Past U.S. Market Reviews

Every monthly review stays available at its own permanent link:

• U.S. Review October 2026
• U.S. Review September 2026
• U.S. Review August 2026
• U.S. Review July 2026
• U.S. Review June 2026
• U.S. Review May 2026
• U.S. Review April 2026
• U.S. Review March 2026
• U.S. Review February 2026

FAQs

Why is U.S. short-term rental occupancy rising in 2026?

Demand is growing faster than supply. In October 2026, demand nights rose 3.5% while available listings grew just 1.2%, so occupancy rose 1.1 percentage points to 55.4%, within a tenth of a point of October 2023.

Why has U.S. short-term rental supply growth slowed?

The housing market is frozen. Mortgage rates reached 7.28% in early October, pending home sales fell 17% and home prices are not falling, which makes buying a second home to rent out harder to justify. Listings grew 1.2% in October, the weakest rate since June 2021.

Which U.S. markets had the strongest demand growth in October 2026?

Florida’s Gulf Coast led: Sarasota (+28.5%), St. Petersburg (+24.1%) and Cape Coral/Fort Myers (+19.4%) were three of the top four, with Big Bear, California (+22.0%) in third. Demand rose in 29 of the 50 largest U.S. markets.

Are short-term rental hosts raising prices?

Yes. The Repeat Rent Index, which tracks prices on the same listings, rose 7.1% in October 2026 while ADR rose 3.1%, because more stays are going to cheaper small city, rural and suburban markets. RRI rose 9.2% in mountain/lake resorts and 7.7% in urban markets.

How are U.S. ski markets pacing for the 2026-27 winter?

Behind. Across 16 major ski markets, nights on the books for December through March are 6.0% behind last year, led by Park City (-21.8%), Jackson Hole (-18.6%) and Vail/Avon (-17.9%). Telluride (+14.8%) leads, and ADR on the books is up 8.6%, leaving booked revenue 2.0% above last year.