AirDNA Data Accuracy is Right on the Money According to New Airbnb Report

How Accurate Is AirDNA? AirDNA Data vs Airbnb Earnings Summary

Data accuracy is the bedrock of AirDNA. Without it, investors and hosts can’t manage their vacation rental business strategically. Our business is to strengthen theirs, which is why we take pride in ensuring our projections ensure the smallest possible margins of error.

Since going public in 2020, Airbnb has released quarterly earnings summaries. While typically a tool for the stock market savvy, these summaries are also an effective gauge of how accurate AirDNA is. 

We’ll walk you through the Airbnb earnings summaries for the past two quarters, what Wall Street predicted, and how AirDNA’s projections stacked up.

Airbnb Q4 2023 Financial Results

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Airbnb reported 99 million nights and experiences booked, marking its highest fourth quarter ever.

Airbnb also reported that their host community grew to 5 million hosts around the globe,  and active listings exceeded 7.7 million by the end of 2023.

Total Nights Booked in Q4 2023

Airbnb Report: 98.8 million (+12.0% year-over-year, or YOY)

Wall Street Estimate: 97.9 million (+11.0% YOY)

AirDNA Estimate: 100.2 million (+13.6% YOY) — 99% accurate

Gross Booking Value in Q4 2023

Airbnb Report: $15.5 billion (+14.8% YOY)

Wall Street Estimate: $15.1 billion (+12.0% YOY)

AirDNA Estimate: $15.2 billion (12.5% YOY) — 98% accurate

Revenue in Q4 2023

Airbnb Report: $2.218 billion (+17% YOY)

Wall St. Estimate: $2.164 billion (+13.6% YOY)

AirDNA Estimate: $2.212 billion (16.3% YOY) —  99.7% accurate

Active Listings Growth in Q4 2023

Airbnb Report: Added nearly 1.2 million active listings (+18% YOY) with double-digit supply growth across all regions, with the highest growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America. 

AirDNA Estimate: Added 1.2 million active listings with (+18% year over year)

Airbnb Q3 2023 Financial Results

In the third quarter of 2023, Airbnb’s earnings summary reported a record travel season for Airbnb, and their most profitable quarter ever, according to CEO, Brian Chesky. 

Below, we outline the facts from Airbnb’s earnings report and how our projections for Q3 compared to the reported figures:

Total Nights Booked in Q3 2023

Airbnb Report: 113.2 million (+14% YOY)

AirDNA Estimate: 113.2 million (+14% YOY) — 100% accurate

Gross Booking Value in Q3 2023

Airbnb Report: $18.3 billion (+17% YOY)

AirDNA Estimate: $18.4 billion (+18% YOY) — 99% accurate

Revenue in Q3 2023

Airbnb Report: $3.4 billion (+18% YOY)

AirDNA Estimate: $3.35 billion (+15.4% YOY) — 99% accurate

Active Listings

Airbnb Report: +19% YOY in Q3 2023

AirDNA Estimate: +18.1% YOY in Q3 2023 

Booked Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Airbnb Report: +3.3% YOY in Q3 2023

AirDNA Estimate: +4.5% YOY in Q3 2023 

Additional Findings From Q3 2023

Here are a few other interesting findings from Airbnb's Q3 2023 earnings report compared with our estimates.

The report noted that nights and experiences booked in Q3 2023 “exceeded 113 million, growing 14% YOY and accelerating from Q2 2023.” Mirroring AirDNA’s reporting that the short-term rental industry is growing in both supply and demand, Airbnb noted, "Over the last nine months we’ve added nearly 1 million listings globally and we continue to see demand for travel grow.”

Airbnb will also remain focused on “making hosting mainstream” and growing supply, with active listings growing 19% on a year-over-year basis. Airbnb, like AirDNA, called out the shift of the fastest-growing region from North America to Asia Pacific. These results are just one more point proving that "Airbnbust" is not happening.

Read our latest Market Reviews for more in-depth insights on the current state of the U.S. and European STR markets.

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